Will Interest Rates Continue to Rise or Fall? How SMBs Can Prepare

In this article:

• Understanding interest rates
• Preparation strategies for SMBs
• Case studies and examples

Interest rates play a pivotal role in shaping borrowing costs, investment decisions, and overall economic conditions. Whether you are planning to secure financing, expand your business, or manage existing loans, having a clear understanding of interest rate movements is crucial. By staying informed and proactive, small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) can position themselves to take advantage of favorable interest rate environments and mitigate risks during periods of uncertainty.

In this article, we’ll delve into the topic of interest rates and explore the question: Will interest rates continue to rise or fall? By examining the current economic climate and analyzing key factors that influence interest rate trends, we aim to provide you with valuable insights and actionable strategies to prepare for potential interest rate fluctuations.

Understanding Interest Rates

Interest rates represent the cost of borrowing money or the return on investment for lenders. They are expressed as a percentage and reflect the compensation required by lenders for the risk they undertake when providing funds. For small business owners, interest rates affect the affordability of loans and credit, influence investment decisions, and impact consumer spending patterns, ultimately affecting the overall financial health and growth potential of SMBs.

Factors Influencing Interest Rates

So what are the factors that influence interest rates?

1. Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve formulates monetary policies that impact interest rates. Through mechanisms like adjusting the benchmark interest rate, Federal Reserve aims to control inflation, stimulate economic growth, and ensure price stability.
2. Economic Conditions: Interest rates respond to the state of the economy. Factors such as GDP growth, unemployment rates, inflation levels, and fiscal policies implemented by the federal government all influence interest rate movements.
3. Inflation Expectations: Inflation, the rate at which prices for goods and services rise, affects interest rates. Higher inflation erodes the purchasing power of money over time, prompting lenders to demand higher interest rates to compensate for the loss of value.
4. Supply and Demand for Credit: The availability of credit and the demand for loans also impacts interest rates. When there is a high demand for borrowing and limited credit supply, interest rates tend to rise. Conversely, when the demand for credit decreases, interest rates may decrease as well.

Impact of Interest Rates on SMBs

Now that you understand the inputs that affect interest rates, let’s look at how interest rate variability affects businesses:

1. Cost of Borrowing: Interest rates directly affect the cost of borrowing. When interest rates are high, obtaining loans or credit becomes more expensive, potentially limiting growth opportunities.
2. Investment Decisions: Interest rates influence investment decisions. Higher interest rates increase the cost of financing projects, which may deter businesses from pursuing new ventures. Conversely, lower interest rates can incentivize investments by reducing borrowing costs.
3. Consumer Behavior: Changes in interest rates can significantly influence consumer spending habits. When interest rates rise, consumers may become more cautious and reduce their spending, impacting businesses that rely on consumer demand. Conversely, lower interest rates can stimulate consumer spending and boost business revenues.Top of FormBottom of FormTop of Form

Will Interest Rates Rise or Fall?

Near-record inflation after the pandemic led the Fed to make several small interest rate hikes in 2022—resulting in the fastest interest rate increase since the 1980s. This year, the interest rate increases have been smaller, averaging a quarter of a percentage point each time, but they have been increases nonetheless. The Fed’s goal is to increase federal funds interest rates to 5-5.25% for the first time in 16 years in order to combat inflation. (Note that this is the amount banks pay for their money—not the average small business loan rate, which will be 2-4% higher).

Thankfully, these efforts seem to be working. Inflation peaked in June of 2022, but is still above pre-pandemic levels. The 5% target means that interest rates are still likely to go up in the not-too-distant future, but they won’t go up that much.

Preparation Strategies for SMBs

As SMBs navigate the uncertain landscape of changing interest rates, it is crucial to proactively prepare and safeguard their financial stability. Here are some effective strategies to consider:

• Stay Informed: Regularly monitor economic indicators, market trends, and interest rate forecasts. Keep a pulse on the financial landscape to anticipate potential changes that may impact your business.
• Review Financial Statements: Conduct periodic reviews of your financial statements to assess the health of your business. Analyze key financial metrics, such as profitability, liquidity, and leverage, to identify areas that may require attention or improvement.
• Review Existing Debt Structure: Evaluate your existing debt portfolio, including loans, credit lines, and outstanding balances. Understand the terms, interest rates, and repayment schedules associated with each debt instrument.
• Consider Refinancing Options: With interest rate fluctuations, it may be advantageous to explore refinancing opportunities. When rates eventually go down, you may be able to refinance debt at more favorable terms, potentially reducing interest expenses and improving cash flow.
• Develop Cash Flow Projections: Forecast your cash inflows and outflows to anticipate potential changes in interest expenses. Consider various interest rate scenarios and assess their impact on your cash flow.
• Build Cash Reserves: Maintain adequate cash reserves to withstand unexpected changes in interest rates or economic conditions. A solid cash cushion can provide a buffer to cover increased borrowing costs if interest rates rise.
• Explore Alternative Funding Options: Consider diversifying your financing sources by exploring alternative funding options, such as crowdfunding, venture capital, or angel investments. These options can provide additional capital and reduce reliance on traditional bank loans.
• Consult with Financial Advisors: Engage with financial advisors, accountants, or business consultants who specialize in small business finances. Their expertise can provide valuable insights and guidance tailored to your specific business needs.
• Invest in Automation and Efficiency: Embrace technological advancements to automate processes, improve operational efficiency, and reduce costs. Adopting digital solutions for accounting, payment processing, and financial management can enhance productivity and enable better financial decision-making.
• Increase Financial Literacy: Educate your employees about the potential impact of interest rate changes on the business. Foster a culture of financial literacy and empower employees to contribute to financial planning and risk management efforts. By providing training and resources to enhance your team’s financial and analytical skills you can equip employees with the knowledge to navigate financial challenges and support your company’s strategic objectives.
• Utilize Data Analytics: Leverage data analytics tools to gain insights into your business’s financial performance and identify opportunities for optimization. Analyze customer behaviors, market trends, and financial data to inform strategic decision-making.
• Maintain Cash Flow Forecasting: Implement robust cash flow forecasting mechanisms to anticipate potential fluctuations in interest expenses. This enables you to make informed decisions regarding investments, expenditures, and financing needs.
• Adjust Business Plans: Develop multiple scenarios to evaluate the impact of different interest rate scenarios on your business. Adjust your business plans accordingly to mitigate risks and capitalize on potential opportunities, and explore opportunities for cost optimization, revenue diversification, and operational efficiencies.

By implementing these preparation strategies, you can navigate potential interest rate fluctuations with greater resilience and minimize the impact on your company’s financial health.

Case Studies and Examples

To provide practical insights into how you can prepare for and navigate changes in interest rates, let’s look at some case studies:

Case Study 1: Retail Business

• Scenario: A retail business operates in a highly competitive industry with slim profit margins. The business owner closely monitors interest rate trends and anticipates an upcoming increase.
• Preparation Strategy: The owner conducts a comprehensive review of the business’s financial statements and identifies opportunities to optimize cash flow. They negotiate favorable payment terms with suppliers, implement efficient inventory management practices, and enhance their working capital management. Additionally, the owner explores refinancing options to take advantage of lower rates before they rise further.
• Proactive Measures: The business owner invests in technology to streamline operations and improve efficiency. They leverage data analytics tools to gain insights into customer behaviors and market trends, allowing them to make informed decisions regarding inventory management and marketing strategies. By proactively adjusting their business plans and closely monitoring their financial position, the retail business successfully weathers the interest rate increase and maintains profitability.

1. Case Study 2: Manufacturing Company

• Scenario: A manufacturing company plans to expand its operations and invest in new machinery. However, small business interest rates have been volatile, making the cost of borrowing uncertain.
• Preparation Strategy: The company conducts thorough scenario planning, considering different interest rate scenarios and their impact on investment returns and financing costs. They work closely with their financial advisor to assess the feasibility of expansion projects under various interest rate scenarios. This analysis helps them make informed decisions about the timing and financing structure of their investments.
• Proactive Measures: The manufacturing company takes advantage of low-interest-rate environments by securing favorable financing terms for their expansion plans. They explore leasing options, negotiate equipment financing with favorable interest rates, and consider government-backed loan programs designed to support business growth. By capitalizing on low rates and carefully structuring their investments, the company successfully expands its operations while minimizing financing costs.

1. Example: Service-Based Start-up

• Scenario: A service-based start-up is in the early stages of its business and relies on external funding to support its growth. The founder anticipates rising interest rates in the near future and wants to mitigate potential financing challenges.
• Preparation Strategy: The founder engages in comprehensive market research and feasibility studies to assess the start-up’s growth potential in different interest rate environments. They develop a detailed business plan that outlines strategies for revenue diversification, cost optimization, and attracting alternative sources of funding.
• Proactive Measures: The start-up actively pursues non-traditional funding options, such as business lines of credit, venture capital, or strategic partnerships. They strengthen their financial position by building relationships with potential investors and securing additional equity or convertible debt financing. Additionally, the founder maintains open communication with existing lenders to discuss potential refinancing options or adjustments to loan terms to mitigate interest rate risks.

These case studies and examples demonstrate the importance of preparation, proactive measures, and adaptability in managing interest rate fluctuations. By analyzing your unique circumstances, your business can develop a strategy to help you successfully achieve your business goals even if interest rates continue to rise. Top of Form

Conclusion

Interest rates are likely to rise slightly in the near future, so if you need funding, it may be smart to act sooner rather than later. Biz2Credit offers a full suite of loan options, ranging from SBA loans backed by the Small Business Administration, to working capital loans, term loans, and commercial real estate loans. Sarita and Caesar Ekya used Biz2Credit financing to get their East Village restaurant S’Mac up off the ground nearly a decade ago, and has returned for additional financing over the years to help them make it through tough times—including the COVID-19 pandemic. Reach out and contact a loan specialist today for a quick consultation to see how the right financing options can help you achieve your business goals. Or check out our small business loan calculator to play around with how rate changes might affect your financing.